Canada and the United States are nearly a year into a relationship that looks very different than it did in 2024. Ongoing tariff uncertainty and drastic shifts in cross-border travel and spending habits have produced variable impacts on Whatcom County’s economy. While it’s still an evolving scenario, there are some clear economic indicators emerging — in addition to qualitative observations — that are significant for our region. 

What are travelers telling us?

The only way to get data on why travelers are crossing the border and what they do when they get here is to ask them. Roughly every five years, the Whatcom Council of Governments leads a collaborative effort to survey cross-border travelers at four border crossings between Whatcom County and British Columbia.

In past years, Canadians — who comprise the majority of cross-border travelers — came to Whatcom County for short, frequent trips with the primary purpose of shopping, followed by gas purchases and recreation. 

Another survey was conducted this past summer, and findings indicated a notable shift in Canadian cross-border habits: A larger percentage are crossing for recreation, vacation and family visits, while the percentage of trips for shopping, package pick-up and gas purchases have plummeted. 

Retail sales tax 

Given the volume of Canadians who have typically traveled to Whatcom County for shopping, it is reasonable to assume they have a measurable impact on our retail sales tax revenues. Measuring that impact, however, is challenging. In the pre-COVID years, there was an observable (and statistically significant) relationship between the number of Canadian visits and taxable retail sales in several categories, including general merchandise, online sales and clothing.  In 2018, the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University estimated that Canadians contributed roughly $185 million to retail trade, in addition to food purchases (which are not taxed in Washington), as well as over half of the local option gas tax revenue in Blaine and Sumas — an important source of funding for those communities. (In Washington state, all cities and towns within 10 miles of an international border crossing and transportation benefit districts with an international border crossing within its boundaries may levy a fuel tax of up to 1 cent per gallon.)

Given the shift in cross-border consumer behavior, both in the post-COVID years and again in 2025, many of the assumptions that go into these analyses need to be revisited. Preliminary estimates by BPRI indicate that in 2024, Canadians spent as much as $188 million in taxable retail sales (in retail trade). While still a large number, the relative percentage attributable to Canadians has dropped since 2018. More to come on that.

Overall tourism

In addition to the usual (shopping) suspects, Canadian visitors support numerous aspects of our tourism and hospitality markets. This includes Bellingham International Airport, where Canadians have composed over half of passengers, as well as our hotels and entertainment industries. Year-to-date hotel occupancy was down 5% from 2024 in Whatcom County, as of September, according to Bellingham Whatcom County Tourism. Canadian participation in events like Ski to Sea, the Lake Whatcom Triathlon and the Bellingham Bay Marathon declined by nearly half this past year.  According to the Birch Bay Visitor Info Center, Canadian visitation to the center has dropped by 12% this year compared to last, and registration by Canadians in Birch Bay’s Polar Bear Plunge has dipped slightly, by 6%. Anecdotal observations suggest that vacation home rentals by Canadians in the area also are down. Recreation is also a big draw for Canadians, with many activities, such as mountain biking or hiking, not captured in any datasets.

Is our region unique?

Yes and no. Cross-border travel has dropped across the board, resulting in economic impacts in many regions along the border. However, two defining features have caused our region to see greater reductions than other areas.  Because rural Whatcom County is adjacent to the dense population centers of the Lower Mainland, the main driver for cross-border travel is southbound (Canadians comprise as much as 70% of cross-border travelers). Also, because Canadian travelers primarily cross for discretionary reasons, their consumer behavior is easily influenced by changes in the value of the Canadian dollar, US border policy, or even the price of gas, resulting in considerable economic impacts — particularly in places such as Blaine, Sumas and Point Roberts, where industries have been built up to cater to Canadian consumers.

A changing border-crossing landscape

I have always been a believer of the old Morton Salt ad and the saying, “when it rains, it pours.” This appears to be the case for the Canada-US border, with multiple changes creating a “thickened” border crossing environment. Some of this additional friction is related to the Canadian boycott of US travel, driven not just by political reasons but also by concerns about enhanced border screening and safety within the US. Other changes are related to US requirements that are either new or are newly applied to Canadian travelers who traditionally had been exempt. This includes a registration provision for visitors staying in the US for longer than 30 days. 

Teasing out the impact of Canadians on certain aspects of Whatcom County’s economy is an indirect path peppered by numerous assumptions. However, understanding the influence of the border — and our Canadian neighbors — is undoubtedly an important aspect of our quality of life in Whatcom County that goes well beyond economics. ■

Laurie Trautman is the director of WWU’s Border Policy Research Institute, where she engages in a range of research activities focused on the border between the US and Canada and the “Cascadia” region that encompasses parts of Washington state and British Columbia.